Nadal withdraws from Wimbledon
Nadal must be really hurting to withdraw from Wimbledon. He’s a very tough athlete, and he was defending champion.
And to top it off, he had an apparently easy draw – all the players who have given him some difficulty in the last year or two were in the bottom half (Federer’s), including Robin Soderling (who beat him at Roland Garros a couple weeks ago, and also nearly beat him at Wimbledon a couple years back), Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (who beat him in Australia in 2008), Novak Djokovic (who nearly beat him on clay in May, and also has given him fits at Wimbledon in the past), and even Fernando Verdasco (who came within a hair’s breadth of upsetting him in Australia this year). The only nemeses in his half were world #3 Andy Murray (who beat him at the 2008 U.S. Open), who he wouldn’t face until the semis, and Mikhail Youzhny, who once posed a problem, but hasn’t been a threat for some time.
If Federer wins Wimbledon, he will not only be the new recordholder for career Grand Slams (fittingly breaking Sampras’s record of 14 at the latter’s favourite tournament), he will also regain the #1 ranking. (Even had he entered, Nadal would have needed at least a semifinal berth to retain #1 were Fed to win the title.)
It’s too bad, really. I think a lot of people were hoping for yet another Federer-Nadal showdown in the Wimbledon final – a stage that has provided two classic five set matches in the preceding two years.
And of course, there will be the complaint that if Fed regains #1, he won’t have earned it; he’ll have it by virtue of Nadal’s injury.
That’s a bit unfair, however. One could argue that Nadal would never have been number 1 had Federer not suffered mono in 2008.
The other factor here is that unfortunate fact that, as numerous pundits have been saying for years, Nadal’s playing style pounds his body to pieces. If he is going to have the long career it looks like Federer will, he’s going to have to change his style of play, particularly on the punishing hard courts. He has had problems in various parts of his legs for several years, which is why he usually has at least one lengthy part of the season which he either misses out on or is pretty much ineffective. While good health is a gift of God, there is no denying that one of the reasons for Roger’s success is that he has been very healthy, and his fluid, seemingly effortless playing style has been a big contributor to that. (His struggles in 2008 and early 2009 were from mono – not sports-related – and from a bad back – which virtually any athlete can incur, no matter what sport or style is involved.)
The withdrawal of Nadal probably benefits someone else even more than it benefits Federer. Andy Murray is already in the weaker half of the draw, has just won his first grass-court title, and has a pretty clear path to the final unless young gun Juan Del Potro (#5) or someone less likely steps up.
A word of warning, though. There really is no such thing as an easy draw. At this level, all the players are dangerous. The question is form and matchups. Nadal matched up well with almost everyone in his half. Will Murray? Gonzalez is in his quarter, as are a couple of big servers, albeit lower-ranked ones (he faces Kendrick in the first round). Roddick is also in his half, and with his draw, he also may have a path through to the semis.