Australian Open 2010 – reflections
So, The Mighty Fed (TM) has done it again. Vanquished Andy Murray – whose time had purportedly come – in straight sets to win his 16th Grand Slam. One can’t help but think he’s going to reach 20, which seemed unthinkable.
As for Murray, he can be faulted for not playing as aggressively against Federer as he did in his thumping of Nadal (which would have occurred whether or not Rafa had developed his leg injury).
But it must not be forgotten that Rafa’s game is not Federer’s game. While Rafa did well to try to hold the baseline in his Murray match (something he is only learning to do; it is not native to him), one thing that was clear to me in that match was that Nadal succeeded in hitting the ball flat only for the first couple games of the match. After that, even with aggressive positioning, his looping shots made him easy prey for Murray, whose speed is phenomenal. That exaggerated topspin may bother Federer when hit to the backhand, as he is only 6′1″ and deploys the one-hander, but it is lunch for Murray, who is 6′3″ and whose best shot is his backhand.
Federer’s ballstriking, however, is of an entirely different sort. He not only positions himself very aggressively on the baseline and steps into the court at the first opportunity, he also hits the ball much flatter than Nadal. Even the incredible examples of topspin we saw in the final were almost never looping – rather, several times he caught Murray napping with balls that appeared to be going out and dropped in at the last possible moment. It’s a lot harder for a player accustomed to being a counterpuncher, such as Murray, to play aggressively against Federer than against Nadal. His time is taken away.
That said, when Murray did step it up offensively, he did get more chances, even if it didn’t win him any sets. In his post-match interview, he noted that one difference between playing Federer at the Slams and elsewhere (Murray is 6-3 against Federer outside of the majors; 0-2 at the Slams) is not so much that Federer plays a different style, but that he makes far fewer mistakes. Which indicates to me that Murray has probably begun to clue in: while he has been content to get everything back and wait for the unforced errors to come, that’s not going to work against Roger on the big stage. He may win his share of minor matches (although Federer is now on a 3-0 run against him), but counterpunching won’t give him a major if he’s facing Fed.
As for Nadal, he’s facing what many of us long suspected: his playing style is bound to curtail his career. He hit the top relatively quickly, but all that pounding cannot be sustained on hard courts. To his credit, he has attempted to change his style (and he has beefed up his lefty serve more than I would have imagined a natural righty could do), but he is not quite there yet. He still reverts to looping topspin too readily, and that means he can be pushed around with high quality aggressive tennis – especially from the taller guys with two-handed backhands such as Murray, Del Potro, Djokovic, and a number of others. Which means that there is a growing list of young bucks that can take him down on hard court. Don’t bet on him winning another hard court Slam unless he somehow learns to flatten out the ball on a regular basis, unless he gets the very kindest of draws.
Speaking of Del Potro: I think he suffered from the weight of high expectations after winning the U.S. Open. Not to worry: he’ll get his share of titles. But Djokovic also has struggled to go all the way to the final since winning his first Slam in Australia in ‘08. It’s one thing to come through with no pressure; it’s another to feel the weight of being a favourite. Which is one more thing that makes Federer’s run so remarkable.
Marin Cilic is also on the verge. He of course had that hammering of Murray at the U.S. Open in 2009, and here he had an incredibly tough draw and still gave Murray fits in the semis. He’s very young, very strong, and very smart. He has plenty of room for growth on his serve, and once he solidifies that, he should also be in that elite group.
It’s an exciting time for men’s tennis – lots of young talent who move like the wind and hit like Ali. And that’s without talking about Tsonga (crazy fast for a big guy), Soderling (who I suspect felt pressure similar to what Del Potro experienced), or the resurgent Roddick, who nearly toppled Fed at Wimbledon in ‘09.
One last thing: I’m no fan of Serena Williams, which was again confirmed for me last year at the U.S. Open when she uttered threats against an official. But despite very different personalities, she and Federer do share one thing: the ability to rise to the occasion. In 2009, Serena won just three tournaments. They just happened to be the Australian Open, Wimbledon, and the year-end championships. Similarly, Roger won just four titles in 2009 – but two of them were Grand Slams. (And for that matter, Roger was a set away from winning Australia in ‘09, and just two points away from winning the U.S. Open.) Even though neither Serena nor Roger are as consistently dominant as they have been at times in the past, they still come through in the clutch when the stage is largest.