Okay, my history in calling these things isn’t necessarily all that great, but this is the way I see it:
EASTERN
Washington vs Montreal: Caps in six.
New Jersey vs Philadelphia: Flyers upset in six.
Buffalo vs Boston: Sabres in seven.
Pittsburgh vs Ottawa: Pens in six.
WESTERN
San Jose vs Colorado: Sharks in five.
Chicago vs Nashville: Hawks in six.
Vancouver vs Los Angeles: Canucks in five.
Phoenix vs Detroit: Wings in six.
Don’t bank on any of this. 
So, The Mighty Fed (TM) has done it again. Vanquished Andy Murray – whose time had purportedly come – in straight sets to win his 16th Grand Slam. One can’t help but think he’s going to reach 20, which seemed unthinkable. (more…)
Congrats to Jie Zheng and Na Li, with their respective unprecedented runs to the Aussie Open semis. Of course, no one gives them any chance against Serena and Justine… though Henin is still working through rust.
And oh yeah, congrats to TMF for 23 consecutive Grand Slam semis. Not bad.
When defending champ Rafael Nadal withdrew from Wimbledon with injury, the tennis world was heavily disappointed. So many were looking for yet another epic match between Rafa and Roger Federer; last year’s grandiose 6-4, 6-4, 6-7, 6-7, 9-7 victory for the Spaniard has been labelled the greatest tennis match ever. And that was a follow-up to another brilliant 5-setter the previous year, and the pair also had yet another at Australia in January of this very season.
The secondary hope for a great final rested with Andy Murray, the great UK hope and now world #3, who holds a 6-2 head-to-head against Federer. It was thought he had a nearly clear path to the final, but world #6 Andy Roddick played him brilliantly for his third crack at a Wimbledon final against The Mighty Fed (Andy lost this same matchup in 2004 and 2005). Most gave him virtually no chance, expecting him to get perhaps one set at best.
Instead, the world was treated to yet another epic battle that didn’t end until 16-14 in the fifth (the most amount of fifth set games in Grand Slam history), as Roddick, playing fitter and smarter under coach Larry Stefanki, had the match of his life. In the end, it took Federer a personal best 50 aces to get the best of Andy, who didn’t drop serve until his very last service game. (more…)
Nadal must be really hurting to withdraw from Wimbledon. He’s a very tough athlete, and he was defending champion.
And to top it off, he had an apparently easy draw – all the players who have given him some difficulty in the last year or two were in the bottom half (Federer’s), including Robin Soderling (who beat him at Roland Garros a couple weeks ago, and also nearly beat him at Wimbledon a couple years back), Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (who beat him in Australia in 2008), Novak Djokovic (who nearly beat him on clay in May, and also has given him fits at Wimbledon in the past), and even Fernando Verdasco (who came within a hair’s breadth of upsetting him in Australia this year). The only nemeses in his half were world #3 Andy Murray (who beat him at the 2008 U.S. Open), who he wouldn’t face until the semis, and Mikhail Youzhny, who once posed a problem, but hasn’t been a threat for some time.
If Federer wins Wimbledon, he will not only be the new recordholder for career Grand Slams (fittingly breaking Sampras’s record of 14 at the latter’s favourite tournament), he will also regain the #1 ranking. (Even had he entered, Nadal would have needed at least a semifinal berth to retain #1 were Fed to win the title.)
There will doubtless be those who suggest that Roger Federer’s long-desired championship at Roland Garros is tainted, because he didn’t have to defeat Rafael Nadal in order to win it.
I will not be one of those. To be sure, a victory over Nadal would have been more dramatic and much sweeter. It would invoke more staying power in people’s memories. And it’s also true that – not so unexpectedly, really – the moment was just too much for Robin Soderling, playing in his first Grand Slam final (he had never so much as reached the quarters previously).
But Federer was the best player on this fortnight, and that’s what any championship is about. If we go through the lists of titlists in any sport, almost all of them at some point have won a final against someone other than their chief archrivals. It’s just the nature of sport, and there will be no asterisk beside Federer’s name, explaining that he did not have to defeat Nadal in order to win the 2009 Roland Garros crown. Nadal on this occasion was not good enough to beat Roger’s eventual finals opponent. He was not good enough to win Roland Garros in 2009; Roger was.
Today we are reminded why it has been so important for Federer to improve continually, to keep putting himself in positions where he has a chance to win, even on the clay at the French, where supposedly he would never succeed. There were many naysayers who said he could never beat Rafa Nadal at Roland Garros, and therefore would never win the title. But nonetheless, he became the second-greatest claycourter of his time. Only Nadal himself was able to stop Federer at Roland Garros for the last four years. It is therefore not a cheap victory, but entirely fitting, that the man who invested so much of himself in winning this tournament has finally done so. This could never have happened had Federer resigned himself to being an also-ran on clay.
This tournament has raised all sorts of other questions. What does this event do to the confidence of both Nadal and Federer, respectively, heading into Wimbledon? Will Federer reclaim, not only his Wimbledon title, but the number one ranking? Even if Nadal’s tendonitis was some sort of factor, has Soderling’s dominant performance against him shown the way for other players to present a real challenge to Rafa – even on clay? And what of Soderling himself: has he finally turned a corner, so that the promise of his talent will be fulfilled to the extent that he can challenge repeatedly at the majors?
The coming months promise some very interesting storylines….
A year ago, it almost seemed inevitable that the Detroit Red Wings and Pittsburgh Penguins would meet again in another Stanley Cup final.
But the Penguins lost some key pieces of their puzzle over the off-season, including local favourite Ryan Malone, and more importantly, superstar Marian Hossa, who signed with… Detroit, as a free agent. And halfway through the season, neither club looked likely to make it: Detroit was having all sorts of defensive and goaltending woes, while Pittsburgh didn’t so much as have hold of a playoff spot.
But here we are, and they’ve both made it, and done so in pretty impressive fashion.
There are a host of reasons why this particular matchup is highly intriguing:
Okay, this will be the 19th meeting between these two (Nadal leads 12-6, not least because so many of their meetings have been on clay). But perhaps more significant: this will be Federer and Nadal’s seventh meeting in a Grand Slam final. That ties a record that dates way back to 1919-1925, when Bill Tilden and William Johnston were the pair in question. It’s my guess that it’s a record that will be broken this year….
Federer will have the advantage of both an extra day’s rest, and a much easier semifinal, after Nadal ground out a record-breaking 5 hour, 14 minute marathon with Verdasco. Still, Rafa did get a day off, and he’s extraordinary in terms of physical endurance, so I don’t really expect fatigue to be a huge factor.
Tough call on who will win this – Nadal’s serve has finally become a big weapon, which is so necessary on hard court, and he’s learning to play a lot more aggressively. Meanwhile, Federer, despite a hiccup against Berdych, when he had to come back from two sets down, looks to be back on his game after a 2008 when he fought himself much of the year due to mononucleosis and the resultant lack of proper conditioning (not to mention rest). But I’m pulling for Roger to win his fourteenth Slam, tying the all-time mark set by Pete Sampras.
… Claude Lemieux returns to the NHL tonight in a San Jose Sharks uniform.
I guess he decided Chris Chelios shouldn’t be the only dirty old man in the league.
(For those who don’t know: Chelios, nearly 47, is the second-oldest player ever to play in the NHL, behind Gordie Howe. He also is widely hated for dirty tricks. But Lemieux, 43, was one of the dirtiest players of all. Like Chelios, he was a very gifted player and won numerous championships – but he was notorious for using his stick to impede and surreptitiously hurt other players throughout his career.)
As most Canadians know by now, CBC decided not to renew their rights to the traditional HNIC theme song. Instead, they are holding a contest to find a new Saturday night anthem.
And… I’ve entered! You can find my first entry, “Hit the Ice,” at the CBC site here.
I’m hoping to find time to get another entry or two in, but the deadline is August 31, so we’ll see.
I’ll try to keep this site updated, but further challenge info is at the sister site, timgallant.com, where I’m eventually planning on keying my music stuff.
If you’re a fellow Canadian, please listen and consider voting for me when the time comes!!
So we’re down to the final four, and both teams I cheer for are still in… and I still expect them to face each other in the final.
I haven’t made any published analysis and predictions in a long while, so here goes:
Some say that Dallas has defeated the better teams and have the better goaltender; ergo, they are the favourites.
But Detroit learned by painful firsthand experience last year just how difficult it is to get through three successive physical, skilled teams in the Western Conference, when they fell off in the last half of the series against Anaheim after working through Calgary and San Jose. Dallas has a similar task this year: after knocking off defending champ Anaheim and then eking out a six game thriller against the Sharks, they now run into the Wings, who are fresh as a daisy after a sweep of the depleted Avalanche. Beating the better teams isn’t always an advantage. And that is especially the case, given the fact that the Stars required 3 1/2 overtimes in game six to dismiss San Jose.
It may be that Turco is a better netminder than Osgood (although his record against Detroit is pretty dismal), but it must not be forgotten that any series involving Detroit tilts the ice. Osgood doesn’t have to be as good as Turco; he just needs to be solid and make the saves at the critical times, which he has done admirably since taking over from Hasek in the first round. It says here that the Wings will outplay Dallas, and that guys like Holmstrom and Franzen (who is suddenly a rival to Malkin as the best second line center in the league) will be sufficiently in Turco’s face that he’ll give up goals.
Verdict: No surprise that I’m picking the Wings, but I’m going out on a bit of a limb and saying Detroit in five. Dallas is good at every position – but almost everything the Stars do well, the Wings do even better.
Philly had the Pens’ number during the regular season, but it’s well-established that those sorts of accomplishments mean little at playoff time (Pens also hadn’t won at MSG until the playoffs; and Montreal had a winning record against the Flyers).
The trouble that Philly faces is that Pittsburgh’s little-known defense has rapidly come of age, and there’s no disputing the incredible one-two punch at center (Crosby and Malkin; pick the order). Jordan Staal is ridiculously good as a third-line center; he’s a top-level penalty-killer, an excellent defensive forward, and to top it off, his line has the ability to provide offense, as well.
Truth be told, this young Pittsburgh team reminds me very much of the 1983 Edmonton Oilers: ridiculous one-two at center with Gretzky and Messier, solid secondary scoring, a mobile defense that was on the verge of emerging into stardom, and a young goaltender rapidly coming into his own. (You could even argue a parallel between Kurri on Gretzky’s wing with Hossa beside Crosby: two European natural goalscorers who play a two-way game.)
That young Oiler team was on the cusp of greatness and went to the finals, only losing to the skilled, experienced, three-time champion Islanders. It says here that this young Penguin team has a similar destiny. They will advance here, and go down to the semi-dynastic Wings in the final.
Verdict: Pittsburgh in 6.
Just learned something that will probably surprise most: What NHL goaltender has the most shutouts in series-clinching games?
Not who you would think.
Not Martin Brodeur.
Not Patrick Roy.
Not Ken Dryden.
The correct answer is Chris Osgood, the Detroit netminder who is the Rodney Dangerfield of the NHL (never gets any respect, no matter how good the stats).
Roger Federer has had mono since December – and didn’t know it until February. So the food poisoning prior to the Australian Open wasn’t even his biggest problem.
It’s amazing to realize that Roger got to the semifinals of a Grand Slam while fighting mono, on top of having lost weight and strength due to the food poisoning. Wow.
Anyone who watched the semi could see that Fed wasn’t moving well, although the commentators tried to say it was Djokovic’s aggression making Roger look slow. (Djokovic himself got beaten by low-ranked Gilles Simon in his next event when fighting a slight flu.)
Fed had a tough comeback, forced to play Andy Murray in the first round without being in match shape. Hard loss to take, but now that he’s better, I’m sure he’ll be back to form soon.
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